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An Observation And A Prediction

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Riches6
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Pitino has stated several times that we've been in every game this year.  That's a great point.  All three losses could have been wins with under 30 seconds to go.  That's unusual.  Even great Lobo teams of the past had games we just weren't going to win.  Under Bliss even blowouts were common on the road.  

There is no letdown with this team as their effort is consistent every game....kinda like their even-keeled coach. 

My prediction for the balance of the regular season:  we go on a bit of a run again at 9-1 to finish 14-4 in conference.  I don't think that is probably even good enough for first place but it is for second and an at large berth despite what happens in the conference tournament.  (I don't think SDSU loses 3 more games, only 2 including another to us at the Pit).

 

This topic was modified 2 weeks ago 5 times by Riches6
 
Posted : January 25, 2023 8:13 am
abqpianist reacted
docmmm
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As good as the Lobos are, and they're very good, I think the usage rates of the starters may catch up with the team the last 3-4 weeks of the season. The Lobos ranks 334th in D1 teams in % of minutes used by the bench , 23.6%. Th good news is that Utah State (300th), Boise State(308th) and Nevada(333rd) are all high too.

Eventually the wear and tear of a long season of high playing time can set you up for more injuries and/or fatigue. Maybe not, but this team has 3 of the top 7 players in the entire MWC in average number of game minutes and a 4th in the top 20. That's a whole lot of minutes for 4 of your starters. Throw in these Overtime games and it can start to add up. So it's good that 5 of the last 7 games are against the weaker MWC teams.

I think they go 7-3 from here on out, finish strong and go into the MWCT, 25-6. I think they win at least two games in Vegas and finish 27-7 and go to MM as a #6 or #7 seed.

This post was modified 2 weeks ago 5 times by docmmm
 
Posted : January 25, 2023 8:40 am
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Riches6
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@docmmm I think you mean 25-6 and 27-7.

IMHO most teams might get fatigued but not these guys!

 
Posted : January 25, 2023 8:48 am
lobofan13 and abqpianist reacted
docmmm
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Posted by: @riches6

@docmmm I think you mean 25-6 and 27-7.

IMHO most teams might get fatigued but not these guys!

Fixed it, thanks. You may be right but I think House, especially, expends so much energy rushing up and down the court, not to mention always going for steals, that he's more foul-prone at the end of games, which can also be a factor of too much playing time.

 
Posted : January 25, 2023 9:38 am
lobofan13
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Posted by: @docmmm

As good as the Lobos are, and they're very good, I think the usage rates of the starters may catch up with the team the last 3-4 weeks of the season. The Lobos ranks 334th in D1 teams in % of minutes used by the bench , 23.6%. Th good news is that Utah State (300th), Boise State(308th) and Nevada(333rd) are all high too.

Eventually the wear and tear of a long season of high playing time can set you up for more injuries and/or fatigue. Maybe not, but this team has 3 of the top 7 players in the entire MWC in average number of game minutes and a 4th in the top 20. That's a whole lot of minutes for 4 of your starters. Throw in these Overtime games and it can start to add up. So it's good that 5 of the last 7 games are against the weaker MWC teams.

I think they go 7-3 from here on out, finish strong and go into the MWCT, 25-6. I think they win at least two games in Vegas and finish 27-7 and go to MM as a #6 or #7 seed.

 

 
Posted : January 25, 2023 11:41 am
lobofan13
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Very good post. I think this is a very good possibility and would be a nice outcome. The games left that concern me most are USU and BSU away. And sweeping SUDDS is going to be very difficult. And then some others that could bite you like SJSU away which we always seem to have a problem with, even when they are terrible which is no longer the case.

This post was modified 2 weeks ago by lobofan13
 
Posted : January 25, 2023 11:49 am
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JulieG
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We have nine players. I haven't seen any slow down yet, but, of course, anything can happen. Two on our bench are getting more minutes and one of those is getting even more minutes and he is a point. Pitino is trying to get the two Bigs on the bench into action more depending upon what is needed. That House and Mash might be tiring out might be a concern, overall I haven't seen it, especially when the two backup players are so talented and in many ways unusual. This is an exceptional team as the sum of its parts doesn't add up to what they have achieved.

 
Posted : January 25, 2023 12:13 pm
Golobosguy
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the Nevada game here scares me the most.  But we will likely lose to BSU on the road.  

This post was modified 2 weeks ago by Golobosguy
 
Posted : January 25, 2023 2:28 pm
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BrutusXXX
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Posted by: @golobosguy

the Nevada game here scares me the most.  But we will likely lose to BSU on the road.  

I have got to believe Pitino and the Lobos with 6 days to prepare versus the 1 day going into Reno will be much more prepared to matchup with Nevada. Pitino and staff got a better read on what will and not work defensively. Baker dominated Lobos in the first half. Allick did cool him off in the second. Udeze and Allick, along with all the Lobos will be fresh for that game. That quick turnaround was a contributing factor in the loss. Pitino hates to look for excuses!!

 

 

 

 
Posted : January 25, 2023 3:13 pm